Rational decision making: how autistic brains beat bias

Published on 19 May 2025 • Written by Dr Lisa Colledge

Autistic people have a reputation for being logical, consistent, and fair, and these characteristics are supported by the research literature. I've previously explored how autistic thinkers excel at rational decision-making, because their focus is resistant to irrelevant distractions, and they are less resistant to cognitive biases such the Sunk Cost Fallacy and the Framing Effect. You can read that piece here, but to summarize:

• The Sunk Cost Fallacy describes our tendency to keep investing in a losing proposition just because we’ve already spent time or resources on it. Autistic people are less attached to these earlier investments; they are better able to cut their losses and move on.

• The Framing Effect shows how the way information is presented influences our decisions. Most people prefer to keep $30 of $50, instead of to lose $20 of $50; you only see the logical 50:50 split between these options with autistic thinkers who tend to evaluate the core facts, not their emotional or stylistic packaging.

These examples illustrate that autistic people tend to be less swayed by irrelevant context, emotional cues, or social expectations. Psychologists have found that autistic thinkers are particularly well suited to decisions that require logic, structure, and fairness, and that makes them a natural fit for the kind of complex, rule-based work that is critical in technology. This isn’t the only reason autistic people are a natural fit for roles in technology, but it’s one of them, and it helps explain why we see such a concentration of autistic professionals in places like Silicon Valley (you can read more about that here).

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky famously showed that people rely on mental shortcuts—heuristics—to make decisions due to the amount of information involved. These approximations usually work well, but there are situations—well explored by psychologists—where they can lead us astray, causing us to overlook risks, misjudge value, or let emotion override reason.

Evolution has ensured that among the range of brain types in our species, some are better equipped to resist these cognitive traps and in situations where you need a decision without approximation—where you want clarity without distortion—autistic thinkers often excel.

Below, I share three further examples to illustrate how autistic minds cut through cognitive bias. If your organization relies on high-quality decision-making, especially in tech or data-driven environments, it is worth exploring how to design your team culture so that it is welcoming and enabling of talent with an autistic thinking style.

Autistic resistance to the Attraction (or Decoy) Effect

Most people are inconsistent in how they make decisions, especially when irrelevant comparisons, such as those relating to personal or social situations, are introduced. For example:

You’re offered two sizes of coffee:

• Small: $4.50

• Large: $7.00

You choose the small one—it’s cheaper, healthier, better value.

Now a third option is introduced:

• Medium: $6.00

Almost no one buys the medium, but that's not its purpose. It is there to act as a decoy. It makes the large look like a better deal. Suddenly, most people shift their choice to the large coffee—even though nothing about their actual needs or preferences has changed.

This is called the Attraction Effect, or Decoy Effect, and autistic people are more resistant to it. They’re more likely to stick to their original, rational choice.

Autistic resistance to Optimism Bias

Do your teams consistently underestimate how long things will take, or how much they’ll cost? You’re not alone—and it may not be a skills issue. It’s often due to Optimism Bias.

Optimism Bias makes people believe that positive outcomes are more likely than negative ones. They’re more inclined to update their views when new information is encouraging, and ignore it when it’s not.

This often results in:

• Underestimated timelines.

• Insufficient risk mitigation.

• Overconfidence in project outcomes.

Research shows that autistic individuals show lower susceptibility to this bias. That doesn’t mean you should require everyone in charge of risk registers to be autistic—but it does mean that organizations benefit when they intentionally include a mix of thinking styles. By welcoming diverse cognitive styles—including those commonly found in autistic thinkers—you’ll enhance your team’s objectivity and improve decision making.

Autistic resistance to emotion-driven irrationality: The Ultimatum Game

Let's play a game. I'm going to offer you a share of $100. But there’s a catch. I set the terms, but you don't know them up front. If you decide to accept, we split the money as I suggest. If you decide to refuse, neither of us gets anything.

Now imagine I offer you $18 of that $100.

Would you take it?

Most people wouldn’t. It feels unfair—and they’d rather lose the $18 than reward the injustice.

This is irrational. You’re rejecting free money based on emotion. $18 is more than you started with—my personal outcome of $82 doesn’t impact the fact that you’ve just received money for nothing. But most people decide to refuse so neither of us receives anything.

Autistic people, by contrast, are more likely to accept the offer. They tend to evaluate the outcome rationally: any share of $18 is better than $0. This isn’t about lacking emotion—it’s about resisting emotional interference when making decisions.

The bigger picture

Of course, individuals vary—but research shows autistic thinkers tend to have a unique edge in resisting some of the most common cognitive traps that skew decision-making.

That doesn’t mean you need to single someone out who is autistic to handle all your tough decisions. It means building a workplace where autistic and otherwise neurodivergent people can contribute fully—without needing to justify or explain the way their minds work.

When you design your working culture to welcome and enable a mixture of different cognitive styles, everyone benefits. Decision quality improves. So does trust, inclusion, resilience, and a wide range of other outcomes, both personal and business.

In our increasingly technologically-driven world that rewards clarity, logic, and system-level thinking, especially given the shortage of AI-literate talent that is commonly reported, these aren’t just soft skills. They’re strategic ones.

This is just one reason we see such a strong alignment between autistic minds and the world of technology. To explore the cultural side of that story, read my companion article on Silicon Valley and high-performing teams.

The takeaway? When you want clearer decisions and fewer cognitive traps, build the kind of culture that welcomes the minds most resistant to bias. 

Want to listen to this content as a podcast? Anti-bias brains that excel in logic and rational decision-making

I’m Dr Lisa Colledge, and I help ambitious leaders build future-ready teams they trust to deliver now and adapt to whatever’s next — driving engagement, performance, and enduring resilience.

Learn more about building Neuro-Inspired Teams that outpace, outperform, and outlast your competition.